A European take on the U.S election
Written by Martin Banks
The seemingly never-ending American presidential election is (finally) upon us and many may well give thanks for that.
But what cannot also be denied is that this is possibly the most consequential U.S general elections for many, many years.
The final furlong of the election marathon is, aside from drawing breath from the wall-to-wall media coverage, a chance to gauge the feeling on the “other side of the Pond.”
The implications and fall out of a presidential election in the United States, of course, reverberates far beyond its own shores.
The result is keenly awaited in parts of the world pretty much as disparate as it’s possible to imagine, ranging from Ukraine, the Middle East and Taiwan.
Leaders in each of these countries and regions are understandably more anxious than most about how it will all turn out. But political leaders in Europe are also noticeably following the campaign with more interest than ever before.
One reason for that is the fact that America seems more polarised than ever before with two more diametrically opposed characters asking voters to put them in the White House for the next four years. On one level there seems to be almost universal dread at the prospect of a Trump 2 administration but, at the same time, a lot of uncertainty about his opponent, whom many of us in Europe still know little about.
An issue that seems to have been sidelined is climate change. It is the elephant in the room and that is odd as it is arguably the No. 1 issue facing mankind today.
To find out what Europe thinks of this and the election this website canvassed opinion from some senior political figures in Europe along with the views from the world of NGOs and think tanks.
What is unmistakable is there are real concerns about the impact a second Trump presidency may have on current efforts to tackle the issue of climate change, evidence of which was seen with the worst floods in Spain in generations. The result of climate change or not the dreadful events in Spain the past few days have reignited debate about the climate.
Sergey Lagodinsky, a senior Greens Member of the European Parliament from Germany, admits to being very worried about Donald Trump getting the keys to the Oval Office again.
Speaking to this website, he says,”It’s little surprise that we are worried. First and foremost — it’s almost certain that we will expect a rollback in climate policy, both in the US and on the global stage.”
Lagodinsky, and MEP for 5 years, says furthermore, a win by Trump will “embolden authoritarians in Europe”, adding, “It will be a blow to democracy worldwide. The trade relations could also suffer as more American protectionism will hit our economies in Europe.”
Daniel Freund, another Greens/EFA MEP who has been following the US election in Pennsylvania and Washington DC this week, says he has seen for himself “just how highly divided this election campaign and this country is.”
He told IPD, “It’s quite clear that aside both Europe and the climate crisis, the greatest threat facing humanity, play no role in this campaign for both republicans and democrats. The impact of these elections on European politics, democracy and rule of law will be huge. Whatever happens on Tuesday, it’s quite clear that the message for Europe is that we need to be able to stand on our own two feet, when it comes to our security, support for Ukraine and as champions of democracy in the world.”
The world of NGOs is also concerned.Chiara Martinelli, Director of Climate Action Network Europe, a leading environmental campaign group in Brussels, has also called for the EU and others to recommit to efforts to tackle global warming even if a Trump presidency brings “more turmoil.”
Martinelli said, “The EU must increase its efforts to decarbonise, even if Trump gets elected. Increased efforts that will not leave any doubt at the international negotiations table that the Paris Agreement implementation is the only way forward to address the global climate emergency. The good thing is that both the political guidelines by the Commission President for her new term, as well as recent ministerial decisions confirm the commitment to advance the climate policy implementation. Ongoing discussions on a clean industrial deal must add a component in terms of steering and supporting future-proof industries which are competitive in a zero emission and climate resilience future. Moreover, forecasting the potential geopolitical turmoil within another Trump presidential term, there should be a more concerted effort by the EU to wean off fossil fuel imports and look to boost its energy security through reducing energy demand and accelerating the rollout of renewable energy.”
Further comment comes from Mélanie Vogel and Thomas Waitz, co-chairs of the European Green Party.
They said, “In this crucial moment, Europe needs Kamala Harris as President of the United States, to be a reliable partner and to take the urgent, decisive action needed on the climate crisis, and to bring about a just and sustainable peace in the Middle East.”
Lagodinsky’s compatriot, David McAllister, Chairman of the European Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee, believes the outcome of the election is of “enormous importance for us in Europe.”
Current conflicts are, he says, “deepening geopolitical fault lines and are putting our international partnerships to the test.”
The centre right politician add, “As never before since the end of the Cold War, authoritarian regimes are prepared to use military force to weaken the rules-based international order.
“In this geopolitically tense situation, the US is and will remain our closest ally and partner. The transatlantic friendship must remain a key pillar of European foreign policy. Europe must assume more responsibility in NATO and develop its own military capabilities.”
The MEP is afraid that a second Trump presidency would put transatlantic relations “to the test once more.”
This applies in particular, he goes on, “to NATO cooperation, to our support of Ukraine and to global trade.”
“During his time in office, Mr Trump was not interested in strengthening the transatlantic partnership. On the contrary: these were four challenging years. We have learned that Trump’s guiding foreign policy principle is unpredictability.”
He continues, “There are no signs that he intends to change course during a possible second term – this would likely influence his future administration’s Ukraine policy. The European Union has reaffirmed its stance that no initiative to build peace in Ukraine can be taken without the participation of the Ukrainian government. Peace on Putin’s terms that is implemented over the heads of the people of Ukraine is not peace at all.”
McAllister says that cooperation with President Biden’s administration has been “solid, reliable and cooperative” since 2021, adding, “Our response to the Russian war of aggression and our well-coordinated support for Ukraine have demonstrated this. Kamala Harris wants to continue on this course.”
Europe, he states “must be well prepared for both conceivable election outcomes.”
“In Congress, we should try to ensure a stable future for our transatlantic relations with both the Democrats and the Republicans.
“Ultimately, the 170 million registered US voters will decide who should govern the United States for the next four years. The decisive factor is who can most effectively mobilise voters in this final election phase until November 5.”
Yet more concern about the spectre of a Trump presidency is voiced by veteran Irish MEP Sean Kelly who believes the upcoming U.S. Presidential election “will certainly impact global stability.”
Kelly says Donald Trump’s presidency was marked by “unpredictable policies that strained traditional alliances, making US-EU cooperation exceptionally challenging.”
He goes on, “As Ireland relies on this essential partnership, we benefit from consistent, values-based relationships that promote trade, investment, and economic growth, a second Trump Presidency is not in our interests.
“With wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, the world does not need an erratic President in the White House who appears to favour autocratic regimes over liberal democracies. As Ireland also approaches a general election, I’m hopeful for a ‘Harris’ win on both sides of the Atlantic, with Kamala Harris in the U.S. and Simon Harris here at home.”
Former Polish MEP and EU commissioner Danuta Hubner says, “It is true that for quite a while Europe had lived in this post Cold war peace dividend time when our industrial and defence capacities had been declining. And we seemed not to see that China has been investing seriously in building its economic and military power. But this blindness is behind us. We have been catching up for a while now, radically increasing our investment in security. Certainly the conventional criminal Russian war played a role in waking us up. Our investment in preserving deterrence and defence capacities on our continent has skyrocketed. That allows me to say that whoever the American citizens choose as the new tenant in the White House will need to accept some form of EU-US cooperation.”
She adds, “My intention is to make a case for optimism. Indeed, even during the time of the most dysfunctional relations there was a structured framework based on a targeted approach which facilitated bringing the Americans to the table and created a momentum for cooperation. Also now we can imagine a follow up to the well cemented Trade and Technology Council around which we developed a network of transatlantic stakeholders. A new territory can be our defense industrial strategy. I also trust that on American side there will be somebody looking at the cost of not having a barrier free transatlantic market.”
She goes on, “When the world is clearly moving toward uncertainty and instability, it will not be difficult to see the cost of a not advancing transatlantic cooperation. It is not the time when America can move toward isolationism. Having said that, I am worrying about potential post electoral immediate political stability. I am worrying about America not seeing the importance of Ukraine prevailing against Russia which could give the transatlantic alliance the chance to counter the authoritarian axis around Putin. A weakened transatlantic cooperation would send a signal to them that there is a gap they can use to remake the global system of rules and institutions and annihilate democracy. So, while knowing that this time around there might be more challenges to the transatlantic global engagement, we must spare no effort to walk the path toward mutually supportive relationship.”
Further reflection on what most must agree has been a largely fascinating campaign comes from Edward McMillan-Scott, a former MEP and one of the longest-serving Vice-Presidents of the European Parliament 2004-2014.
He held the portfolio of Human Rights and Democracy but like all Vice-Presidents had additional responsibilities, in his case EU/US relations during his last mandate.
McMillan-Scott was an admirer of the US National Endowment for Democracy (NED) a Washington-based organisation and its work in the Arab world, up to and across the 2011 ‘Arab Spring’. The Brit is a kinsman of Col T E Lawrence (‘of Arabia’) who incited the Arab Revolt in 2016, and worked with Liz Cheney, then a State Department official on the Middle East desk, later a strong critic of Donald Trump. In Brussels, the visit by President Obama during his term in office was, for him, “one of the most poignant in the evolution of EU/US relations.”
Speaking just ahead of election day on Tuesday, he says we are “approaching the most significant and potentially portentous election in recent world history.”
The signs are not good, he fears, adding, “all my contacts with US institutions, or those that are based there like the think tanks such as Carnegie or free market American Enterprise Institute are quivering with anticipation or dread. It is a very big moment.”
The year of 2024 is certainly election year, with over 60 countries around the globe holding polls and that includes, earlier this year, the EU elections.
But Denis MacShane, a former close aide to Tony Blair, firmly believes the US election is still the most important election, not just for Europe but “more widely the world.”
The former Labour front bench politician believes Donald Trump “incarnates the turn to populist, nationalist, identity, divisive politics.”
He says this has “sunk roots” in Europe with the rise of Marine Le Pen in France, Giorgia Meloni in Italy, Geert Wilders in the Netherlands, Britain’s Nigel Farage, Robert Fico, and Hungary’s Viktor Orban.
Robert Fico, Jarosław Kaczyskni,the AfD in Germany or FPÖ in Austria and VOX in Spain are, he says, other examples.
He says, “The new sometimes racist, always anti-Muslim, anti-European right have cannibalised mainstream post-1945 centre-right or Christian democratic parties backed by a media owned and controlled by billionaires who reject many of the more social and liberal values and policies that were rooted into Europe’s political culture after 1950.
“Trump represents the European nationalist, exclusionary, right often anti-women and homophobic as in Italy under Meloni or Poland under Kaczynski.”
The former Minister of Europe under Blair, says that Trump is aligned with those, including the so-called Putinversteher in Berlin and Vienna “who wanted Ukraine to surrender to Putin and accept the return of Russia as a semi-colonial power in the lands of the former USSR.”
“Trump has already sent his factotum Steve Bannon to promote the far-right in Italy and France after he became president in 2016. Trump also enclosed Boris Johnson’s support for Brexit in line with Putin’s geopolitical vision of Europe returning to a network of rival, frontier-closing national states rejecting the partnership, common policies, enforceable laws associated with the EU, the European Court of Justice or the European Human Rights Conventions and European Human Rights Court.”
He fears that Kamala Harris “does not know Europe” but goes on to say that her “political upbringing is rooted in Euro-Atlantic democracy and values.”
“Trump,” he adds, “is overtly contemptuous of European values and will seek to deal with EU nation states and the United Kingdom one by one weakening the Euro Atlantic community of nations at a time when new forces and power – China, India, Russia, the BRICS want a very different world in which might is right and Hindu, Russian, or Sino nationalism prevails.”
Pat Cox is a former MEP and president of the European Parliament. He said:
“I think this will be the most consequential US presidential election in more than a century, not just for the United States itself, but also for its allies and for the global standing of democracy in an increasingly contested multilateral environment.”
Pieter Cleppe, editor in chief of Brussels Report, said, “Looking at his previous term, one can Trump expect to be protectionist, but also transactional. In other words: Europe could try to make a deal with him that ends up cutting tariffs on both sides of the Atlantic. At least that is what Trump offered back in 2018.”
“As for regulation, he has a track record of boosting the US economy through deregulation. This is hopeful.When it comes to Ukraine, he may well close a dirty deal with Putin, but to think that he will simply sacrifice the whole of Ukraine is misguided. The US now considers this to be their area of influence now.”
On 5 November, the world will be watching to see whether Americans choose Kamala Harris or Donald Trump to be their next president.
Whatever the outcome, the result is the subject of intense debate in Europe, as elsewhere, with views seemingly as polarised as they are in the U.S itself.
Right now, the race for the White House is too close for comfort
One thing is clear: the stakes of these elections could not be higher.
About the author
Martin Banks is an international freelance journalist with 44 years experience covering national and international stories.
